In times of war, decisions have to be made quickly, but the consequences of a wrong decision can be fatal. It is also true that you will never have 100% of the information needed to make a decision. Therefore, to better enable its soldiers to make the right decision more often, the United States Marine Corps developed “The 70% Rule.” This Rule states that if you have 70% of the data and have completed 70% of the analysis and if 70% of your gut feeling or instinct is in agreement with the first two, then go ahead and make your decision. In other words, you have a greater likelihood of making the best decision by using the 70% Rule than you would have had, if you had not used the 70% Rule.
From my last Leadership Blog, we looked at how Megan and Ted used the Weighted Averages Method to help them make a decision about moving because Megan was considering a new position in a different city. However, both the option of moving and the option of staying were a virtual tie using The Weighted Averages Method. However, when Megan applied The 70% Rule, there was a difference in terms of “gut feel” there was a significant difference between position number three and Megan’s current position. Ted was equally content moving or staying put. However, when Megan thought of staying in her current position, it just didn’t feel right. It turned out that she wanted a new challenge more than she thought she did. Since they lived near a university, they could rent their current house to visiting professors and rent a condo in their new location. This would give them the opportunity to try out condo living and see if they wanted to buy a condo or return to their home when they both retired. This example points out the benefits of using more than one decision-making technique.
Exercise: Can you think of a time when you used “The 70% Rule”, even if you were not conscious that you were using it? How did the decision turn out? Alternatively, you can try the 70% Rule with an important current decision and see how it turns out.
Then grade yourself using A (Very Good) through F (Very Poor) in each of the three areas from the 70% Rule:
Information Gathering
Analysis
Gut Instinct
What proof do you have that would validate the grade you gave yourself in each area?
What proof do you have that invalidates or does not substantiate the grade you gave yourself?
Ask several peers, colleagues and/or friends to rate you on the three areas.
Information Gathering
Analysis
Gut Instinct
Do their ratings substantiate the ratings that you gave yourself?
Where do their ratings not substantiate the ratings you gave yourself?
What additional information or data analysis do you need to improve the accuracy of how you rate yourself?
Next, think about another situation where you could or should apply the 70% Rule.
