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On the other hand, almost no one either inside or outside of government expects dramatic turnarounds any time soon. Apart from the fact that there exists little credible data on the impact, thus far, of either the Northern New Brunswick Infrastructure Initiative or the Canada-New Brunswick Municipal Rural Infrastructure Fund (“too soon to tell” seems to be the chorus), the economic problems remain entrenched.
According to Statistics Canada, the counties of Northumberland, Victoria, Madawaska, Restigouche, and Gloucester (which incorporate both the Chaleur district and the Acadian Peninsula), have endured an out-migration of more than 10,000 young and able-bodied workers since 2002, representing nearly five per cent of the region’s total population and as much as 20 per cent of its skilled labour force. Just as troubling, perhaps, is that these numbers do not include so-called “migrant workers” who toil away in places like Alberta, but who are, nonetheless, considered New Brunswick residents.
The demographic impact is stunning. The region’s effective tax base has shrunk perilously close to the level at which numbers-crunchers deem the provision of basic social services as statistically nonsensical. In 1966, northern New Brunswick reached a population of some 220,000 people. This rose steadily each year until 1986, when it plateaued at around 239,000. Today it hovers at around 216,000, less than the number who peopled the region when Prime Minister Lester Pearson was in power. Over the same period, New Brunswick’s overall population increased by more than 100,000 individuals, and Canada’s more than doubled.
Underlying and contributing to these trends has been a dramatic retrenchment in industrial activity, particularly in the traditional forestry sector. In recent years and months, five of the region’s largest employers have shuttered (Smurfit-Stone, Fraser Papers, two of UPM’s pulp mills, and Bowater), taking with them more than 2,200 high-paying jobs.
Reversing these trends will require something more than government’s good intentions. It will take imagination and grit, especially from those who stand to gain from these developments. “Moving a provincial office into the area does provide some measure of local control,” says David Campbell, a Moncton-based economic development consultant. “If you feel as though you have more control, then maybe you have more of a sense of ownership. I have said for a long time that the north must take more control over its own destiny.”
Just maybe, though, something akin to this is happening. Late last year, after a long hiatus, Fraser Papers Inc. announced the restart of its Plaster Rock Mill, recalling 175 people back to work. At the same time, the Province announced $5-million in funding for Groupe Savoie of Saint-Quentin to add a wood pellet and briquette manufacturing plant to its hardwood processing operations. The firm expects to export $9-million worth of products this year.
Indeed, if Boudreau sounds even a little relieved to be discussing the plight of northern New Brunswick – and not, in this case, the fate of NB Power – it’s largely because, despite the eminent challenges and hard road ahead, he believes the region is turning a corner, albeit a narrow one. Who knows? Maybe the deal with Hydro-Quebec, itself, promises immeasurable boons to this long-beleaguered part of the province. Maybe he’ll think about it and get back to me. . . once the phone stops ringing.
